Sports Betting

Ben Burns Aug. 7th update

Ben Burns — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:20:00 GMT

NFLX "Blue Chip" Total kicks-off at 7:00 ET. Thursday "Roasts" are 4-0 YTD!

Week 1 of the Preseason kicks-off today and Documented NFL Champion Ben Burns is fully ready. Ben CRUSHED the books last preseason. and he began his commanding NFLX campaign by going a PERFECT 4-0 with his over/under picks in the H.O.F game and the Opening Round. Today, this renowned "Totals Expert" releases his first total of the '08 season. This top tier ticket is available now and it kick's off on Thursday at 7:00 ET. Even better, it's received "Blue Chip Status!"

Speaking of 4-0, Ben has already gone a PERFECT 4-0 with his weekly Thursday Night "Roasts" this football season, part of a stellar 9-4 mark overall with his Canadian football selections. Winner #5 comes from today's preseason slate. This BEAUTY kicks-off at 7:30 ET.

Ben also has a pair of baseball plays available today, including his latest "Personal Favorite." Note that his PF's are now on a 13-7 run. First pitch goes EARLY so make sure not to sleep in!

With football now officially in full swing, it's a great time to consider one of our ALL-INCLUSIVE weekly or monthly passes, which get you ALL of Ben's plays for an entire week ($175) or month for $400.

WHY I WANT TO BE RICH

Rob Crowne — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:39:00 GMT

DOUBLE HEADER - A POEM
DOUBLE YOUR PLEASURE,
DOUBLE YOUR FUN,
GETTING HEAD FROM TWO
IS BETTER THAN ONE.

When I was young, a good friend and I would discuss why we wanted to be rich and how rich we wanted to be. The one reason to be rich that our mid-20's glands caused us to agree on was that being rich meant having a huge $250,000 yacht. We could dock our yachts at resorts around the world and sit on the deck waiting for beautiful women in groups of two or more to walk wearing almost non-existent swim suits, stilleto heels and perhaps a gold chain around their waistw, long earings, and tongue studs. They would ask if they could come on board for a ride and a bit of a double header. In our young minds nothing beat double headers from two gorgeous ladies while sitting on our yacht. It was our main reason for wanting to be rich.

To the tell the truth, now that I'm old, that fantasy still doesn't sound so bad. Being a dirty old man is still the best incentive I know for being a rich old man. Unfortunately, the $250,000 yacht now costs $750,000, docking fees are about $5000 per month, gas costs a year's income per tank, and hiring even a sekeleton crew is out of the question.

But experience has now taught me that just because I can't hope to get the yacht doesn't mean I can't get pleasure from a double header, and we've got one of those going today between Washington and Colorado. The first game is scheduled to begin at 3:05 P.M. Eastern time and the second at about 6:15 P.M. Eastern time. This double header will put me one step closer to the other kind.

TO GET YOUR DOUBLE HEADER FOR JUST $10 CLICK HERE

Matty's NFL Preseason Betting Notebook for 8/7/08

Matty O'Shea — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:26:00 GMT

Could Ray Rice steal Willis McGahee's job this year?

Here are a few brief tidbits that might be worth betting from various sources on tonight's preseason NFL action.

Best of luck on your NFL picks tonight!

New York Giants at Detroit Lions: The world champions will be in town, but the Detroit Lions' starters won't be seeing much of them. Coach Rod Marinelli said his offensive and defensive starters will be on the field for about 10 plays - likely two series - when Detroit begins preseason play Thursday at home against the New York Giants. Starting quarterback Jon Kitna and receivers Roy Williams and Mike Furrey saw limited action in practice Tuesday as the staff gave most of the team's younger players more time on the field. Some of the first-team guys might play a little more, Marinelli added, singling out defensive tackle Dan Cody, who has been with the second unit for most of training camp. Thursday will be the first professional outing for second-year Lions quarterback Drew Stanton, who missed all of last season after undergoing knee surgery. The 2007 second-round pick suffered the injury three days into his rookie training camp and has not taken a snap against live competition since the last game of his senior season at Michigan State. He'll be the third signal-caller off the bench behind Dan Orlovsky, whom Marinelli said will take over for Kitna late in the first quarter. Stanton is expected to enter the game midway through the third period. (from the Holland Sentinel)

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets have played some legendary games. They launched "Monday Night Football" in 1970. Then there was that 1986 double-overtime playoff game won by the Browns. Stakes are considerably lower tonight, Aug. 7, as the Browns and Jets christen the preseason at Cleveland Browns Stadium. But the curiosity factor is great where these Browns are concerned, and an enthusiastic turnout is expected. In addition, a Browns exhibition game that isn't nationally televised is on in Dayton for the first time in decades. (from Dayton Daily News)

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: Hundreds of rookies will debut this weekend, but none will be on the spot like Ray Rice. The former Rutgers running back will start for the Ravens against the defending AFC champion Patriots, whose last game was the loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl that prevented their undefeated season. Still, new Ravens coach John Harbaugh thinks Rice has a chance to make a splashy debut after a college career that included 910 carries and a lot of highlight-reel runs during the Scarlet Knights' resurgence. "He's a rookie, but gosh he's had a lot of carries his whole career. As a running back, he's a veteran," Harbaugh said. "It will be new for him playing against an NFL defense, particularly that defense. It will be interesting to see how he'll do, but I would be surprised if he's not up to it." (from the Associated Press)

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears: Excepting selected veterans like Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson, KC head coach Herm Edwards indicated most starters could expect extended playing time, which he didn't define. All of their new components, particularly on offense, demand it, he said. On offense alone, the Chiefs have a new coordinator and system, a quarterback beginning his first full season as a starter, an offensive line featuring three new starters and a fourth in a different position, a new starting wide receiver and a new fullback. (from Kansas City Star)

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt said earlier in the week Matt Leinart's and Kurt Warner's playing time would be determined by how well the first-team offensive line played. If Warner sits out, that will give reserve quarterbacks Brian St. Pierre and rookie Anthony Morelli a nationally-televised platform in which to make their cases why they deserve the No. 3 spot behind Leinart and Warner. Several Cards wide receivers will also get a shot to prove they can pick up where last year's third receiver, Bryant Johnson, who was lured away by the San Francisco 49ers in March, left off. Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban and Jamaica Rector, among others, have their eyes set on being the third option behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. First-round draft pick Early Doucet is also in the mix, but he will miss today's game due to a hamstring injury. The health and welfare of the team's quarterbacks falls to an offensive line which has already lost starting center Al Johnson (knee), guard Carlton Medder (broken elbow) and center-guard Scott Peters (knee). Johnson had surgery last week and is expected to back on the field by the start of the regular season. Medder's expected to be out for four weeks, but Peters is gone for the season. (from Arizona Daily Sun)

> Don't miss my NFL Preaseason Play O' the Week at Pregame Pros!

2008 NFL Preseason Coaching Trends from Larry Ness

Matty O'Shea — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:43:00 GMT

Preseason Week 1: Random Thoughts

By Larry Ness
Pregame Pros Handicapper

The Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Redskins opened the 2008 NFL preseason last Sunday night in Canton, Ohio. The storyline featured the Colts being without Peyton Manning and Jim Zorn making his NFL head coaching debut. Of course, Manning wouldn't have played more than a series (or two) anyway, so really all eyes were on Zorn.

By any measure, Zorn 'aced' his first test, as the Redskins beat the Colts, 30-16. Hawaii's Colt Brennan was the offensive star, completing 9-of-10 passes for 123 yards and two TDs, finishing his first-ever appearance as a pro with a near-perfect 157.5 QB rating. However, it's hard not to congratulate Zorn and his staff for their game plan.

For the game, three Washington QBs combined to go 19-22 for 216 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. Also, despite playing without their top two running backs, Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, the 'Skins ran for 156 yards on 31 carries (5.0 YPC). Week 1 of the preseason begins on Thursday with five games, including the Saints at the Cardinals on ESPN. There are three more games scheduled for Friday, seven more on Saturday and Monday night, it's the Bengals at the Packers on ESPN (where's Brett going to be?).

Zorn was just the first of four NFL coaches who will be making their head coaching debuts in 2008. Mike Smith takes over in Atlanta, John Harbaugh in Baltimore and Tony Sparano in Miami. Both Smith and Harbaugh open on the road, as the Falcons play at Jacksonville on Saturday, while the Ravens face the Patriots in Foxboro on Thursday night. Sparano of Miami is the lone coach to debut at home, as the Dolphins will host intrastate rival Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Jack Del Rio of the Jags is 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS as a preseason coach, Bill Belichick of the Pats is 31-22 and 30-18-4 ATS and Jon Gruden of the Buccs is 27-15 SU and 21-17 ATS. Other head coaches with good preseason records include John Fox of the Panthers (16-8 SU and 14-9-1 ATS), Romeo Crennel of the Browns (8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS) and Mike Shanahan of the Broncos (40-24 SU and 35-28-1 ATS).

Looking for "go-against" head coaches in the preseason? Try Andy Reid of the Eagles (12-24 SU and 17-19 ATS), Dick Jauron of the Bills (10-18 SU and 12-15-1 ATS) and Tony Dungy of the Colts, who is now 21-30 SU and 23-26-2 ATS after last Sunday's loss. Mike Nolan of the 49ers is just 5-7 SU in his first three years but he's gone 8-3-1 ATS, so watch out!

'Over' and Under' players may want to note that Mike Holmgren of the Seahawks is 37-25 to the over in his career, while Tom Coughlin of the Giants is 28-21. Herm Edwards of the Chiefs is 19-9-1 to the under in his career, while Belichick is 28-15-1, Shanahan 32-24 and Dungy 28-16-1, after the Colts went over in the Hall of Fame game.

The Cardinals and Chiefs own the longest active losing streaks in preseason tilts, as each team went 0-4 last year. The Cards were 1-3 ATS, while the Chiefs went 0-4. No team made it through last year's preseason without a loss. The Texans saw all four of their games go over in '07 (longest active streak), while the Buccs and Titans take streaks of three straight overs into their Week 1 games. The Broncos own the longest active streak of unders (four straight), while the Chiefs have not played an over since Week 1 of the '06 preseason, playing six unders and a 'push' in Week 3 of last year.

> Get Larry's NFL Preseason Weekly Wipeout Winner at Pregame Pros!

My PGA Championship Debacle (plus, a $25 Pregame Pros Coupon inside!)

Johnny Detroit — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:13:00 GMT

A few months back a contact of mine at ESPN said he would get me tickets to the PGA Championship for the whole weekend. Well, a few months go by and he does not mention it so I do not want to bust his balls sounding like a freeloader and finally concede and commit to my wife on going up north with her family. As my luck sometimes plays out, yesterday my friend calls and tells me how his friend from the Golf Channel is going to leave my tickets at "will call" for me and they are for the entire event. DOH.......

So obviously I am now locked into campfires and hearing the same childhood stories for the 10th time with the infamous "remember when" for the weekend rather than golf and endless cold beer. I love my wife, don't get me wrong, but it made me think how many other men out there have missed something like this due to a family commitment that you know the "old lady" would banish you to "blue balls" for a month if you did not attend.

The point of all this is to help Johnny Detroit feel better about missing the PGA Championship over the weekend. What major game or sporting event did you miss due to your wife giving you the hand on the hip and titled head look and saying "you better go to my sister's house damn it and not sit home to watch Florida vs. Florida State" without actually saying the words verbally. The forum poster that makes me chuckle the most and go "man, he had it worse than me" will get a $25 Pregame Pros coupon to use. Please note, I am leaving either late tonight or early in the morning and can't take care of you until Monday.

So, who is going to start it off?

Toledo Basketball Point Shaving: Behind the Numbers!

RJ_Bell — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 01:34:00 GMT

How many basketball games are really fixed?

Las Vegas, Nevada (8/6/08) - Former Toledo basketball player Sammy Villegas has been charged with point-shaving. The indictment references games from the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons. A closer look at the numbers tells a fuller story.The main game in question was played between Toledo and Central Michigan on February 4, 2006. Toledo was a 15-point favorite, and won the game by 16 to just barely cover the point-spread. Villegas played 21 minutes, taking only 1 shot the entire game and missing both his free throw attempts.

During the two seasons in question, Toledo basketball had a winning record (30 winners; 26 losers) against the Las Vegas point spread which would be surprising if rampant game fixing had occurred; by definition, a fixed game is when a player purposely plays poorly so his team loses against the betting spread.

If the allegations are true, this is one incident of many. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: Academic studies indicate that over 5% of college basketball teams favored by double digits engage in some form of corrupt game manipulation.

Of all teams in recent years, those Toledo basketball games had by far the strongest buzz around Vegas that something funny was going on, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

The case comes approximately 12 months after a Toledo football player was accused in a sports betting scheme, though the charges against him were later dropped. RJ Bell of Pregame.com widely reported that during the 2005 Toledo football regular season, SEVEN games had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those seven teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 7 of 7 times on games involving Toledo; the odds of that happening randomly were 128 to 1 against.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For complete game-by-game details, follow-up questions, or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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Rocky Atkinson's NFL Preseason 2008! 29-10 74% last 3 years!

Rocky Atkinson — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 19:57:00 GMT

NFL PRESEASON 2008

The NFL Preseason is upon us and the smell of football is in the air. Football is what most gamblers await year after year. However, a lot of people dont play the NFL Preseason. Its easy money ladies and gentlemen if you know what you are doing. Lets look at some things that may help you be a winner this year.

With the NFL Preseason, as all other sports, make sure you have several books so you can shop around for the best line possible. The more books the better your chance of winning. We all have been burnt by that dreaded point. Dont let it happen to you this year.

Dont play with your heart. Again, use this with all other sports as well. Yes, you may win a few by doing this and may even make some money, but its not a smart thing to do. Playing with your heart will get you in trouble as you are not thinking clearly on the game. Also, dont play a game just because its on TV or Monday Night Football. Thats asking for trouble too.

Be careful playing on public teams. The Patriots, Colts, Cowboys and maybe even the Giants lines will probably be inflated due to them being public favorites. Giants lines could be out of whack early since they won the Super Bowl last year. Keep in mind that the oddsmakers are not stupid. When something looks too good to be true, normally it is.

Some coaches play to win in the Preseason while others tend to not care and mainly want to keep their starters safe and injury free. Make sure you know all the Coaches Preseason info as well as Quarterback depth charts.

Rocky Atkinson is 29-10 74% the past 3 years in the NFL preseason. We use our own made up power ratings that I call the Rocketman Line, along with Coaches and trend data to come up with our selections. A lot of work is put into the NFL Preseason to ensure that our clients come out on top again.

Rocky has cashed 60% the past 2 years combined overall in the NFL and won 11 out of 12 years in College Football and this will be our 13^th year of handicapping football. You make sure you are on board with us this year. Regardless, I hope you do well and have a great year!!

Rocky Atkinson

All-Star pitchers worth fading down the stretch

Matty O'Shea — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:45:00 GMT

In case you haven't noticed, Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez is NOT the same dominant pitcher he was earlier in the season. Wednesday's performance against the Brewers certainly backed that statement up, as he gave up five runs and nine hits in five innings of an 8-1 loss. Volquez has now surrendered at least four runs and gone five innings or less in three of his last four starts, seeing his ERA rise from 2.29 to 2.93 in the process.

That got me to thinking, what other All-Star pitchers are worth fading in the last couple months of the season? LA's Ervin Santana is also a prime candidate after proclaiming himself the best player in baseball during All-Star festivities in New York three weeks ago. Despite a dominant performance in a 1-0 victory at Yankee Stadium last time out, Santana still has seen the Angels drop two of his last three starts, including a 5-2 loss at Baltimore on July 27. The Orioles just so happen to be LA's opponent again today, and Santana is only 1-2 in five daytime starts this season with an inflated 5.59 ERA.

Another couple pitchers who have struggled since the break are Milwaukee's Ben Sheets (0-2 in four starts with two no-decisions, ERA from 2.85 to 3.14) - the National League's starting pitcher in the All-Star Game - and Oakland's Justin Duchscherer (0-2 in three starts with one no-decision, ERA from 1.82 to 2.33).

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Cleveland's Cliff Lee just keeps on rolling even though his ERA has gone from 2.31 to 2.58 since the break. Lee has picked up three more wins with no losses after starting the All-Star Game for the American League and looks to be an easy 20-game winner barring an injury down the stretch. Arizona's Brandon Webb and Dan Haren have also been especially strong, going 7-0 in eight starts since the break to keep the Diamondbacks in first place.

The major difference though is that Lee, Webb and Haren are veteran pitchers who will likely be in the running for Cy Young awards at the end of the year. Volquez, Santana and Duchscherer are young pitchers who have yet to put together a solid overall season in the majors while Sheets has shown a tendency to break down toward the end, which is why he has never won more than 12 games in his career.

Just an FYI to keep these factors in mind when you're betting on some "aces" who earned high prices with their impressive performances in the first half.

Are YOU betting on Team USA to win gold in the 2008 Olympics?

Matty O'Shea — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 21:44:00 GMT

Did anybody happen to catch the Team USA vs. Australia men's basketball game? If so, you probably realize the Americans will again FAIL to win a gold medal in men's basketball at the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing. In case you missed it, we made only 3-of-18 shots beyond the 3-point mark, scored 10 fast-break points and connected on just 20-of-33 shots from the charity stripe (61%) in an 87-76 victory. The Aussies trailed by just seven points with about five minutes left WITHOUT Andrew Bogut, who is considered their best player.

More from ESPN's Chris Sheridan:

"The Americans are about 99 percent certain to get a W in their opening game against China - the betting line on that game moved from 25 to 33 points on international sports gambling Web sites over the past week - and they're 99.999 percent certain to put a whupping on Angola in their second preliminary-round game. But then comes Greece, which beat the U.S. two years ago and can control the tempo of a game better than any team in the tournament. After that, the U.S will play the reigning FIBA world champion, Spain, which goes nine deep with players who can beat you from inside, outside and in-between."

One sportsbook has Team USA as a -335 favorite to win the gold medal while a "NO" bet is worth +305. Like Johnny Detroit said in his earlier blog after the team's roster was announced back on June 23, I just can't see us winning gold this year either.

Jason Kidd has never lost a game in international competition yet he was benched for the second half of the team's 89-68 win over Russia on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kobe Bryant is getting mad props for his defensive play so far, but is he really the guy you want to be leading this team after his performance in the 2008 NBA Finals? I don't.

Team USA's flaws were exposed against Australia, and I think a better team would have beaten us by double digits. In fact, that could very well happen once the real games begin.

Are YOU betting on Team USA to win Olympic gold?

Free MLB Big Doggie Tuesday from Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson!

Rocky Atkinson — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 15:43:00 GMT

Houston @ Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST
Play On: 1* Houston +225 (Rodriguez/Harden) Listed

Houston is now 9-2 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Chicago Cubs are 464-448 -103.8 units since 1997 when playing against a team with a losing record. Cubs are 132-185 since 1997 when playing in the month of August. Cubs are 127-157 since 1997 when playing on Tuesday. Houston has won 7 of their last 8 overall. Wandy Rodgriguez is 3-1 on the road this year. We'll recommend a small play the HOT BIG DOG Houston Astros today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has two 3* MLB Double Dime plays for Tuesday!! Get em now and let's build your bankroll for football. NFL preseason has been kind to us going 29-10 74% the past 3 years.

CLEVELAND BROWNS TEAM TOTAL WIN PREVIEW

Marco D'Angelo — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 23:24:00 GMT

There's a lot of excitement coming out of Cleveland these days as after all it's not often the Browns are coming off of a 10-6 Season. In fact they have had only one other winning year since their return to the league in 1999. The Browns were the best team not to make the playoffs so high hopes can be expected. Unfortunately once again the Brownies will crumble to the pressure of success.

I've seen it a 100 times a bad team comes out of no where to have a great year and then falls flat the next year. What happens is really simple. First the fact is last year they had an easier schedule and put up good numbers now the question is can they do it against a tougher schedule. Good season last year means tougher schedule this year.

Another factor is that the team did something different last year and teams weren't prepared for it but now have plenty of game film to look at and make adjustments. This can be the case with a player rising to the top out of nowhere. That was the case here as Derek Anderson had a huge year out of no where. Expect things to be different this year as teams will now play him differently.

Vegas doesn't believe Cleveland will repeat last years performance as they set the Over & Under for Total Wins at just 8. I have made a wager on the UNDER 8 WINS at +130 as I see a 7-9 record for Cleveland at best this year.

Don't forget to Check out my 2008 NFL Preseason Package as last year I went 10-1 with my Preseason Plays.

Are you ready to make money betting on the 2008 Olympics?

Matty O'Shea — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:45:00 GMT

Preaseason NFL football has finally arrived, baseball playoff races are heating up and college football picks are just around the corner. So do you think oddsmakers really have the time to make sharp lines for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing? Definitely not.

I used to work closely with Las Vegas Sports Consultants here in town, and I can tell you that they have one guy dedicated to setting the odds for all of the different Olympic sporting events. That is obviously a lot of responsibility to fall on one oddsmaker, which means there is plenty of value for bettors like us to take advantage of after the Opening Ceremonies kick off the games officially on Friday.

In fact, I will be personally posting my OlymPick O' the Day here starting this Saturday. Will I be betting the United States to win gold in mens basketball at -350 or take them in their Olympic opener at -33 against Yao Ming and China on Sunday? Stay tuned.

The bigger question is, will you be betting on the Olympics along with me? If you are a true sports gambling junky like me, I would assume so. I can still remember my first Winter Olympics in 1998 after I moved to Vegas, as me and my buddy Jason (an oddsmaker at LVSC) had money on Hiroyasu Shimizu to win the 500-meter speedskating event. We were up at 3 in the morning our time awaiting the results from Nagano and proceeded to cash our tickets. Yes, it is a bit sick, but there is certainly money to be made betting the Olympics

Are you game?

2008 ACC College Football Picks Preview from JB Sports

Matty O'Shea — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:44:00 GMT

By Curry Bagwell/JB Sports
Pregame Pros Handicapper

Following is my college football picks preview for the ACC...

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Clemson: Tigers were not highly regarded at the start of '07 as they opened as a pick at home vs. Fla. St.. Most analysts (not us) convinced the public that the Tigers were not in the same league as Fla. St. and the line went to FSU (-3). Tigers won that game 24-18 and were 8-2 in mid-November. This year the expectations are nothing short of their first ACC Title under Tommy Bowden and they should be. They return Sr. QB Cullen Harper who completed 65% of his passes last season while throwing only six interceptions. He is backed up by a talented red-shirt freshmen Willy Korn, who played in two games last season before hurting his knee and was granted a medical red-shirt. Two veteran RBs return in Sr. James Davis and Jr. C.J. Spiller. Both of these are projected 1000 yard rushers, but are perhaps more dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield. Those two combined for 90 receptions last year in Clemsons short passing attack. Tigers return a trio of veteran WRs in Aaron Kelly, Jacoby Ford, and Tyler Grisham. All three are solid and excel in catching the ball underneath and running for positive yards. Defensively, the Tigers return eight starters including everyone in the secondary. They have to replace LBs Nick Watkins and Tramaine Billie, but they appear to have young talent ready to step in at linebacker. Tigers defensive front will be solid and, if the nations #1 defensive recruit DaQuan Bowers lives up to billing, could be special. Clemson opens the season with a neutral site game vs. Alabama. It will be ACC #1 vs. SEC #7. A win over an SEC team like Alabama could give them and their schedule validity. As they pile up wins throughout the season, voters wont be as quick to point out how weak the ACC is if they have a win over an SEC school on their side.

Florida St.: Oh how the mighty have fallen. For almost twenty years, the Seminoles were known as Skilled Position U. Now they are at a point where true freshmen, JUCOs and converted CBs are counted on to bring their running attack back to prominence. Under the old FSU system, any QB became a star, but returning QB Drew Weatherford has been beaten up both mentally and physically during his tenure at Florida St. This year, Weatherford has a capable but inexperienced offensive line. Defensively, FSU returns eight starters. A stellar recruiting class could aid a defense which otherwise will be ordinary by FSU standards. A softer September schedule will work to Florida State's advantage this year. That will give this team time to take shape. Six starters will be serving suspensions for academic reasons as the season opens and top receiver and return specialist Preston Parker will not play until Sept. 20th as punishment for legal troubles. In other years when they opened with Miami or Clemson that would be disastrous, but this season they dont go out of state until Oct. 16th and don't play Clemson until Nov. 8th. This will be a different team Nov. 8 from the team that opens vs. Western Carolina Sept. 6th.

Maryland: Three through six is up in the air in the Atlantic division. I'm going with the Terps because their version of the West Coast offense is predicated on high % passing, strong inside running and not turning the ball over. With a solid offensive line and depth at WR, I think they will be able to accomplish that with whoever emerges at QB.

Wake Forest: It has been an incredible two year run for the Demon Deacons. They win the ACC as a 35-1 underdog in 06 despite losing their QB and RB in September. They follow that up with a nine win season a year ago and a bowl victory over Connecticut. This years team will need to duplicate last years ACC leading 35 takeaways to come anywhere near last years 9-4 record as they are going to have difficulty scoring. There are not enough playmakers on offense and the heart of their offensive line is gone. Their defense could keep them in some low scoring battles. If so, they will need that positive turnover margin to continue, but with the third and longs that I foresee, that is going to be difficult to obtain.

Boston College: If you want to really appreciate the value of departed QB Matt Ryan, take a look at some of the 07 film and you will see that he was stuck with a group of receivers that could not get separation. The core of that group is back for three year backup QB Chris Crane. BC averaged only 99 yards per game rushing last year so they are counting on 58 freshmen Josh Haden to turn their running game around. Defensively, BC loses their secondary and their front seven are below average. Amazingly, the Eagles have competed in and won five consecutive bowl games, but there is not enough team speed here for that streak to continue.

N.C. State: Wolfpack return only four starters from a defense that finishes ahead of only Duke in the ACC a year ago. They do return Sr. QB Daniel Evans, but he is on shaky ground and could eventually lose his job to Mike Glennon. They do have a solid core of RBs led by Jamelle Eugene and Andre Brown, but lose all three starting wide receivers. Adding South Carolina and South Florida to their schedule hurts their chances of a winning season.

COASTAL DIVISION

Virginia Tech: VA Tech loses their #1 RB, their top two return specialists and their top three receivers off of last years Orange Bowl team, so how can I pick them first in the ACC Coastal? It is similar to handicapping a thoroughbred race in that you have to analyze the competition and determine what it is going to take to win the race. It might take a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 to win the SEC East, but a speed figure of 80 could win the ACC Coastal. The names will be different but there is still enough speed and athleticism on defense for the Hokies to obtain that 80 speed figure taking advantage of the lack of top notch QB play in this conference. If they had to face the offenses and QBs in the Big 12 South, it would be a different story and they might finish fifth. They do return the QB duo of passer Sean Glennon and runner Tyrod Taylor, who was their second-leading rusher last season. On this particular team, Taylor may be the better fit because Glennon does not have the weapons at WR to throw to. Tech will be improved at offensive line and they are solid at TE. Their schedule is intriguing. They go to N. Carolina and Nebraska in back-to-back road games Sept. 20th and Sept. 27th. They also play at Fla. St. Oct. 25th and at Miami Nov. 13th . At the time that they play those two, both will be much improved which makes the Sept. 20th game with NC a key game.

North Carolina: Tar Heels return 18 starters including everyone but center Scott Lenahan on offense. Sophomore QB TJ Yates will show huge improvement in his second season and he has a talented group of WRs at his disposal. The offensive line could be the most improved in the ACC as nine of the top ten are back. This easily could be the ACCs 2nd best offense behind Clemson this year. With former RB Johnny White and JUCO Melvin Williams now in the secondary, an improved defense can also be expected. They get VA Tech at home Sept. 20th and with no Clemson on the schedule this team could plan for the ACC Championship.

Miami Fla.: A youth movement is on the way at the U and it should pay dividends by 09. Canes had a top three recruiting class including five Top 35 freshmen LBs. OT Marcus Forston was also a highly regarded recruit and adds to the expectations for 09 and 10. Offensively, they will be exciting at RB with Graig Cooper and Javarris James. The problems offensively start at QB. Robert Marve is a red-shirt freshmen and figures to get the job over other incoming freshmen. There are talented freshmen WRs here, but no quality route runners to make Marve's freshman year easier. The schedule is not kind to the young Canes either as they have to travel to Florida and TX A&M in September. This is a talented young team that could be pretty good by November and will be good in 09.

Georgia Tech: Totals on Yellow Jacket games this season could get as low as 29. Their defensive front seven is as good as there is in the ACC. DT Vance Walker and DE Michael Johnson are dominant. GA Tech led the nation in sacks last season and led the ACC in tackles for a loss. Offensively, the Jackets start over under former Navy coach Paul Johnson. Graduation and transfers have depleted the offensive line. They will run the triple-option offense and the Academies have amazed me by how quickly they retool offensively each season. However, those players were recruited for Paul Johnson's system and practiced it for a period of time before they were called upon whereas this GA Tech offense will be a work in progress. Their defense may outscore their offense in September.

Virginia: Cavaliers have lost three offensive linemen, their QB and Chris Long, who was the second pick of the NFL draft. Those are major losses to a team which used up all of their luck last season winning five games by 2 points or less. The schedule does not work well for them as they get non-winnable games vs. USC and Clemson at home and toss up type games vs. Duke, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech on the road.

Duke: New head coach David Cutcliffe inherits a Duke team that was 1-11 a year ago and is 0-24 in ACC games over the last three seasons. 17 starters return and there is a weapon on offense in WR Eron Riley. The defense will be improved and fits somewhat athletically in the conference. Early season games with James Madison, Northwestern and Navy could determine whether this team has a chance for its best season in years. Those three are all played at home and if they could win 2 or 3, it could give this experienced team confidence going into a favorable home ACC schedule.

ACC Fact: Despite the fact that the ACC is weaker than they have been in years, they produced three of the top twelve recruiting classes in the NCAA (Clemson, Miami Fla. and Fla. St.).

ACC Handicapping Note: In 2006, ACC teams playing out of their conference were 8-21 vs. the spread including 2-14 when favored. In 2007, ACC teams playing out of their conference were 16-21 vs. the spread including 7-12 when favored. (Point spreads of 30 and over not considered).

> Buy JB's NFL picks this season & get his college football picks FREE!

HALL OF FAME GAME OF THE YEAR

Rob Crowne — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 23:08:00 GMT

"A Tony Dungheap by any other name would smell as foul." - Rob "Shakespeare" Crowne, circa today from the play "Tonio and Zorniette."

"It was the best of games, it was the worst of games." Charles Dickens Crowne, from a "Tale of Two QB's."

Every handicapper and tout in creation has his Hall of Fame Game of the Year today. Can the line in this Hall of Fame Game be that far off? It can be, but it's NOT! All the Hall of Fame Games of the Year are about "Tout Speak."

"Tout speak" is the very special language of handicappers, sports consultants and just plain touts throughout the land. Below is the "New Crowne Dictionary of Tout Speak" subcategory definition of "HALL OF FAME GAME OF THE YEAR" within the main category of "GAME OF THE YEAR."

GAME OF THE YEAR, n. The best bet the game analyst will see all year. Denotes a pick of greater value than an ordinary selection, and for which bettors will pony up more money more easily. The term "Game of the Year" is usually modified by a another noun or nouns used as adjectives to describe a category and limit the general term Game of the Year. e.g. - Hall of Fame Game of the Year.

-- HALL OF FAME GAME OF THE YEAR - A phrase in which the proper name, "Hall of Fame Game," is used to modify "Game of the Year." The "Hall of Fame Game of the Year" is the best bet the sports analyst will see in the Hall of Fame Game this year.

usage and etymology:
As with all "Game of the Year" phrases, the term "Hall of Fame Game of the Year" connotes greater value than other selectioins. If further modified by the adjective "side" or the adjective "totals," the entire phrase means the best play on a side in the Hall of Fame Game or on the total in the Hall of Fame Game that the sports analyst will see all year. .

Since, however, there is only one Hall of Fame Game all Year, any play on it is the best play the analyst will see in the Hall of Fame Game this Year and therefore may be termed the "Hall of Fame Game of the Year."

Historially, some people have thought such usage to be dishonest, but that ignores tout syllogistic logic when used to form the language of "tout speak." Consider the following logic string:

There is only one Hall of Fame Game all year,
The tout will have only one side play in the only Hall of Fame game,
Ergo, the tout's only side play in the Hall of Fame Game is the best side play the tout will have in the category of Hall of Fame Side Plays.

Now we take the logical conclusion above and use it as the basis for our second syllogism:

The tout's only side play in the Hall of Fame Game is the best side play the tout will have in the category of Hall of Fame Side Plays.
A Game of the Year is the best play that the tout will have this season in a given category,
The Hall of Fame Side Play Game of the Year is the best play the tout will have all year in the category of Hall of Fame Side Plays.
Ergo, a tout's only side play in the Hall of Fame Game must be the HALL OF FAME GAME OF THE YEAR!

And finally we use the second logical conslusion to produce the third logical conslusion:

A tout's only side play in the Hall of Fame game is the Hall of Fame Game of the Year,
Games of the Year are more valuable than other selections,
Ergo, all Hall of Fame Game single side selections are more valuable than other selections.

See, the tout is being perfectly honest when he gives the customer the impression that his only side selection in the Hall of Fame Game is more valubale than other plays. It can be proven by syllogistic reasoning to be more valuable.

A designation of Hall of Fame Game of the Year is also handy in cases in which the tout runs more than service under more than one name and hands out opposite sides on the Hall of Fame Game. In that case, the use of the term "Hall of Fame Game of the Year" becomes dishonest only if the tout uses it to describe both selections. If he uses it to describe only one of his two opposite sides, he is honestly designating to the public the side he likes best of the two he is selling.

To give credit where credit is due, I did not formulate the above logic strings myself. They were taught to me by the head of one of those "protectors of the public interest" called sports monitors.

Of course some of you may note that a tout's only pick in the Hall of Fame Game can also be his worst pick, but then it couldn't be his Game of the Year which is, by definiton his BEST pick, could it?

When in Rome, etc., etc., etc. For MY 2008 HALL OF FAME GAME TOTAL OF THE YEAR CLICK HERE

Free Premium MLB play from Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson! 7 plays in all today!

Rocky Atkinson — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 12:32:00 GMT

LA Angels @ NY Yankees 1:05 PM EST
Play On: 3* LA Angels -125 (Lackey/Rasner) Listed

LA Angels are 69-40 in all games this year. LA Angels are 30-11 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. LA Angels are 38-19 on the road this year. LA Angels are 16-3 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. LA Angels are 20-7 in day games this year. LA Angels are 64-35 on grass this year. LA Angels are 35-17 when playing against a team with a winning record. LA Angels are 65-39 last 3 years and 14-4 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. NY Yankees are 1-6 last 3 years as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Angels are 9-1 last 10 games. LA Angels bullpen has a 3.28 ERA on the road this year. Lackey is 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA overall, 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA on the road and 3-0 his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 14-7 overall vs NY Yankees last 3 years. We'll play the LA Angels for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has a 3-Pack of MLB Winners and four 3* Nascar Head to Head matchups for Sunday! Rocky is documented 60% in MLB this week and currently documented in the Top 5 in the nation at Sports Watch. Rocky is 23-13 64% in Nascar the past 13 weeks and up big on the man again this year. Join us today for all 7 plays and win big! NFL Preseason is here and although we are passing on the first game of the year, our record is 29-10 74% the past 3 years in NFL preseason action so don't miss any winners at all!

Beating Preseason Football - You Can Bet on it!

Marco D'Angelo — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 22:38:00 GMT

Beating Preseason Football - You Can Bet on it!

Many people believe you have to be a total degenerate to bet on Preseason Football. That couldn't be farther from the truth. Preseason can be beat if you understand what Preseason Football is all about. Forget trying to handicap Preseason Football like a regular season game. Don't get overly excited about offensive and defensive stats because that doesn't apply in my Handicapping when it comes to Preseason Games.

Here's the first and most important factor when it comes to beating Preseason Football. These games don't mean a thing that's why they are called exhibition games. Understand that more importantly you are handicapping agendas instead of team strengths and weaknesses. Every week the coaching staff has an agenda that they want to accomplish for that week. It can be looking at certain young players in key situations. It can be working on a new blocking scheme for the offensive line. Maybe last weeks preseason game the coach wasn't happy with the running game and the Coach is making a concerted emphasis on the running game this week. This is important information that can not only dictate the point spread winner but have a major impact on the total.

This kind of information is out there if you do your homework and have key contacts as the coaches are pretty open about what they are doing in the preseason. The key is understanding what's pertinent and what's fluff.

It's important to understand what a new coaching staff will mean to a team. Is the new coach eager to come out of the gate and establish momentum by going all out to win in the Preseason. Some coaches couldn't care less about winning. One of the best coaches in the NFL was Marv Levy and he always sucked in the Preseason because he didn't care about winning meaningless games but used these games to have his teams prepared when it counted. Knowledge is Power and when you combine Knowledge with Experience you can beat Preseason Football.

Last Season I enjoyed another great Preseason as I released only 11 Preseason Plays and Won 10 of them. So yes Preseason Football can be beat. Will I go 10-1 again this year? Who knows but I do know with discipline and information I will show a profit once again. Check out my 2008 NFL Preseason Package

Tony George's best NFL picks for OVER/UNDER win totals

Matty O'Shea — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 17:50:00 GMT

Tony believes the Saints will be money in the bank this season

NFL picks for regular-season win totals

By Tony George
Pregame Pros Handicapper

While not a big fan of exotic wagers, I do at the beginning of the year look at over and under win totals on NFL teams for the season as a good way to make a long term investment. Forget ESPN and all the others, and listen to the Pro's guys, as this is not glossed over for TV, but the real deal. Too much public perception leads to Vegas cashing in year after year. After considering the free agent market, not so much the draft as few rookies make a huge impact other than the rare exception, here's my Top 5 NFL picks on over and under prop bets for season win totals.

Bears UNDER 8 wins

Chicago did little in off season to bolster their roster and QB Rex Grossman, one year removed from a dismal Super Bowl performance did nothing in 2007 to improve his skills or decision making. The Bears have little rushing game and their starting RB has had off-season trouble not once but twice! An aging WR unit, a defense that is overrated, and a division with the likes of the surging Vikings and the runner up NFC champs Packers does little for the Bears chances. A brutal November as well if you look at their schedule. You cannot win in the NFL scoring 14 to 20 points a game. Until the Bears draft a QB or get one in free agency, I do not see Rex Grossman leading them to another championship in the NFC, nor the defense carrying them every game, as evidenced by last years effort.

Saints OVER 8.5 wins (My strongest Prop bet)

I love the Saints this year to get back into the groove of things. With the addition of Jeremy Shockey from New York, with Colson at WR, and the 1-2 punch of Bush and a healthy McCallister at RB, the Saints should be a powerhouse on offense with a still underrated Drew Brees pulling the trigger at QB. There was some improvement on defense but the offense will have to score 24 to 28 ppg to get wins, and that should not be a problem. They play in a very weak division with a weak schedule too, which is a huge positive for them. I would not be surprised to see them deep into the playoffs this season again. I feel that this team is poised to make a big move in 2008!

Raiders UNDER 6 wins

I am not a Raider fan this year. No QB that can play the game as of yet on ther roster in Russell, and banking on a rookie RB in McFadden who will be a good one out of Arkansas, but alas no offensive line, is a big mistake. Hopefully WR free agent Javone Walker can fill the place of Porter who was traded to Jacksonville, but I doubt the defense can stop people running the ball. Quite frankly the Raiders simply cannot score enough points, or keep their offense on the field long enough to rest the defense, and as the game wears down, the Raiders will lose. Too bad because I think Lane Kiffen could be a great coach, but not under Al Davis or the team he has this year. There also is turmoil on the coaching staff and at one point Al Davis was going to fire Kiffen. Not good news heading into this year with allot of question marks

Arizona OVER 7.5 wins

I was all over the Cards last year as an ATS cover team, and they did well. This is a talented team, deep on offense at skill positions, and if QB Leinart can get his act together this team could be a playoff contender. They will battle it out with Seattle this year for top honors in the division, but they have a deep RB unit, the best 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL, and a solid tight end as well, and a decent O line. The ageless Kurt Warner is still around to bail them out, and the defense is improved again. I see 10 wins here out of the Cards and a possible playoff run if they can stay healthy and balance the attack.

Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 wins

Mike Holmgren's last year folks, and he will make a run. This team has a great QB, a solid defense, solid WR's and a strong homefield. They play in a weak division, although Arizona is going to contend as mentioned earlier. Running backs Julius Jones and TJ Duckett step in for the departed Alexander, and they have and undersized but good line. The defense allowed just 15 TD passes against them all year, an NFL best, and this unit remains pretty much in tact. This is a solid team, with good coaching a good special teamers, and great overall team speed. Seattle will contend and win 10 games this year as Holmgeren is too good of a coach to go out with his tail between his legs!

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Early betting on Redskins and UNDER in 2008 NFL Hall of Fame Game

Matty O'Shea — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 23:19:00 GMT

NFL Hall of Fame Game Football is Back

By SPORTSBETTING.COM

When we last saw action in the NFL - not including that travesty referred to as the Pro Bowl - the New York Giants were giving the 1972 Miami Dolphins reason to continue flapping their gums until another team comes around challenging the perfect season again.

It's been six long months since that Sunday in Arizona and with training camp already in full swing; exhibition football is upon us.

In fact it all starts this Sunday in Canton, Ohio when the Indianapolis Colts play the Washington Redskins in the Hall of Fame game.

Since it is the first exhibition game for both teams, starters see limited action, which accounts for the Washington Redskins being listed as 6.5-point favorites and the Total set at 31.5. Think these numbers might be a little different if this was Week 4 of the regular season?

Peyton Manning recently had minor knee surgery and won't be seeing any action at all.

As the Indianapolis Star reports, backup QB Jim Sorgi is expected to see extended work against the Redskins. [WR] Marvin Harrison also will play some with the No. 1 offense.

Sorgi has completed 78 of 127 passes for 751 yards with 6 TDs and 1 INT for his career and although on the injured list quite a few times last year, all signs point to Marvin Harrison being fully recovered.

SPORTSBETTING.COM is reporting that the majority of the action so far is going Washingtons way; 68% to be exact.

The last seven times these two teams have met, the Total has gone Over six times but again, this is pre-season ball. The early betting action is coming in on the Under at a 77% clip.

The NFL is back and like Stan Lee of Marvel Comics is fond of saying, Hang on True Believer!it all starts up this weekend.

Angels Not Falling

When it comes to betting and the American League, right now teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox are the ones receiving much of the attention and future odds action.

But none of those teams is the one with the best record in the majors; that honor belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.

Currently with a record of 67-40, the Angels own the best record in the AL and all of MLB.

The Angels increased their odds to win the World Series a few days ago when they bolstered an already potent lineup by adding Atlanta Braves 1B Mark Teixeirathe Angels are currently +300 to win this years World Series.

The Angels recently played a three-game series against the defending champion Boston Red Sox, who welcomed DH David Ortiz back in the fold, and paid out on the Money line in all three games, in fact the LAA have gone 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20.

While people are trumpeting the Rays, BoSox and Chicago Cubs as possible World Series champions the Los Angeles Angels are certainly another option in futures betting.

The Angels begin a series against the New York Yankees and have gone 4-2 in the last six games in the Bronx.

Have a great weekend.

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Betting Totals in the Preseason: Which Week Produces the Most Points?

Ben Burns — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:40:00 GMT

Successful NFL bettors understand that there is a significant difference between handicapping preseason football games and handicapping regular season ones. During the regular season, with so much importance attached to each and every game, coaches adopt a "win at all costs" mentality. However, those same coaches typically have vastly different objectives during the preseason. While some coaches emphasize winning preseason games more than others, all of them want to give their starters enough time to shake off the rust from the offseason while at the same time avoiding injury. Additionally, the coaches want and need to evaluate the second and third-stringers. The difference in coaches' goals means that non-starters typically receive plenty of playing time in the preseason. This is particularly true of Week 1, when stars generally only play for a series or two, or sometimes not at all. These non-starters have often only practiced the various offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. Naturally, this has a major impact on the game and it's eventual outcome. This week, I'll be focusing on the final scores of preseason games from the past couple of seasons, breaking those scores down from a week by week standpoint. For the purposes of this article, I've included the "Hall of Fame Game" as part of Week 1 of the preseason.

Most coaches and players will agree that it's harder to learn the offensive schemes than it is the defensive ones. New quarterbacks have a ton to learn. They need to adjust to the faster speed of the game, while learning to read the defenses under pressure. Receivers need to learn routes and develop chemistry with quarterbacks, whom they may not have played with before. Meanwhile, the offensive linemen need to coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, while trying to work themselves into game shape. The effect of this is that defenses are often ahead of the offenses in the preseason, particularly in the first couple of weeks. Therefore, as one would expect, scores of preseason games tend to be lower than scores in the regular season.

Oddsmakers are well aware that preseason scores are lower. As a result, adjustments are made and over/under lines are also lower. However, for the first several years of this millennium, those numbers weren't adjusted quite enough, as roughly 55% of the preseason games from 2000-2006 fell below the total. As someone who typically plays more 'unders' than 'overs,' this six year 'under' trend suited me just fine. All good things must come to an end though and the oddsmakers and markets eventually adjusted accordingly. Week 1 of the 2006 preseason saw the 'under' go a profitable 12-4-1. The following three weeks were almost exactly even, with the 'under' going 24-23-1. The 2007 preseason also got off to a mildly profitable start for 'under' bettors. Excluding one game which landed right on the number, nine of 16 game fell below the number. The 'over' bounced back in a big way in the second and third weeks though. Despite 11 of the 16 Week 4 games staying below the total, the 'over' held a slight 33-30-3 advantage for the four weeks combined.

As I've already mentioned, coaches have different goals in the summer than they do in the fall. Those objectives also vary with each individual week of the preseason. The starters see more playing time in Week 2, than they do in the opening week. In Week 3, the starters see their most playing time, often the entire first half or longer. Different coaches have different philosophies about the final week of the preseason. Sometimes, the way they handle Week 4 is dependant on how their team performed the previous week. If everything went relatively smoothly in Week 3, the starters typically see very little playing time in the preseason finale. However, a new coach on a team that is winless, or which struggled in Week 3, may elect to give his starters more playing time in Week 4. The reason for this being that they'd like to "right the ship" before the "real thing" kicks-off in September. Regardless, starters almost always see the most playing time in Week 3.

Due to each week of the preseason being treated so differently, it's imperative to also handicap each week differently. This holds true for both 'sides' and 'totals.' Beneath, I've broken down the final scores, on a week by week basis, from the previous three (2005-2007) preseasons. In addition to providing the average scores from each week, I've also noted how many of the games fell above, below and on the key numbers of 34 and 37. One might hypothesize that Week 3 would be the highest-scoring, as that's when the starters see the most playing time. Interestingly, over the three years of the case study, that didn't prove to be the case. In fact, Week 2 was by far the highest-scoring. Week 3 came next, followed by Week 4. Not surprisingly, the opening week saw the fewest point scored.

Week 1

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 1 games averaged just 33.4 points.

2005

Thanks in part to a pair of extremely high-scoring games from "Hall of Fame Week," (Hall of Fame Game + a game at Tokyo) 2005 saw the highest average of the three year period, with it's Week 1 games averaging 37.88 points. Ten of 18 games stayed below the key number of 37 with one game landing right on 37. Nine games finished above 34 though with two games landing directly on that number.

2006

The opening week of the 2006 preseason was an extremely low-scoring one. In fact, the 17 games averaged just 31.94 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' was a profitable 12-4-1. Thirteen games produced less than 37 points while 10 games fell below the 34 mark. On game landed directly on 34.

2007

Last preseason, the Week 1 games averaged 33.47 points. Eleven games fell below the 37 mark, while 10 of them produced less than 34 points.

********************************************

Week 2

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 2 games averaged 40.15 points.

2005

The Week 2 games in 2005 produced an average of exactly 41 points. Three of the 16 games landed directly on the key number of 34 with 11 of the games finishing above that mark. One game finished with 37 points with nine finishing with more than 37.

2006

The 16 games played in Week 2 of the 2006 preseason produced an average of 36.88 points. Half of the games finished above 34 points while the other half finished below that mark. One game landed directly on the key number of 37 with nine games staying beneath that mark.

2007

Of the 12 weeks analyzed in this study, the second week of the 2007 proved to be the highest scoring. The games averaged a whopping 42.56 points. Twelve of 16 games produced greater than 34 points while 11 of the games finished above the 37 mark. One game landed directly on 37. Note that the 'over' was a profitable 12-4.

********************************************

Week 3

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 3 games averaged 37.31 points.

2005

Despite a couple of high-scoring games which bumped up the average, the 16 games played in Week 3 of the preseason averaged only 35.44 points. Eleven games stayed below the key number of 37 while 10 of them produced less than 34.

2006

Week 3 of the 2006 preseason saw the 16 games average 35.19 points. Half finished below 34 points and the other half finished above that mark. Two games landed directly on the key number of 37 with eight of the games producing less than that amount.

2007

The 'over' was 9-6-1 in Week 3 last preseason, as the games produced an average of 41.31 points. Ten of 16 games produced more than 34 points with one landing right on that number. Nine of 16 games finished with greater than 37 combined points, once again with one game falling directly on that number.

********************************************

Week 4

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 4 games averaged 34.94 points.

2005

The final week of the 2005 preseason proved to be relatively high-scoring with the 16 games averaging 40.19 points. Twelve finished with more than 34 points while 11 finished above the 37 mark. One game landed directly on 37.

2006

The final week of the 2006 preseason produced an average of 34.63 points. Eight of the 16 games produced less than 37 combined points with the same eight games also finishing below the 34 mark. Four games finished with exactly 37 combined points.

2007

Of the 12 weeks analyzed, Week 4 of the 2007 preseason proved to be the lowest-scoring. In fact, the 16 games averaged a mere 30 points with the 'under' going a profitable 11-5. Eleven games finished below 37 points with one producing exactly 37. The same 11 games also all finished with less than 34.

What are your college football picks for most hated teams?

Matty O'Shea — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 19:29:00 GMT

Matty loved rooting against this guy in college - and still does

ESPN just did a great series on their blogs about the most hated college football teams in the major conferences, which got me to thinking, which teams does everybody hate the most? This can obviously tend to cloud your handicapping when making college football picks if you are not careful. Emotions need to be left behind when making football picks.

I personally grew up in Illinois hating both Michigan and Notre Dame, rooting for them to tie each other each year to mess up each other's season (I think it actually happened once or twice). I also hated Miami as a Syracuse alum when they were in the Big East but dont mind them so much anymore. The only other teams I have really hated are Tennessee (loved rooting AGAINST Peyton Manning) and Texas (thanks Cedric Benson). Now I want you to chime in with your most hated teams.

Following are the most hated teams in each conference according to ESPN...

ACC - Miami
Big East - West Virginia
Big Ten - Ohio State
Big 12 - Texas
Conference USA - Tulsa
Mid-American - Toledo
Mountain West - BYU
Pac-10 - USC
SEC - Alabama
Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee
WAC - Fresno State

College Football Picks: Go against team in 2008?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:49:00 GMT

Last season they went 12-1.
Won the Orange Bowl 24-21 as 3.5 point dogs over Virginia Tech.
Went 11-1 against the spread, cashing 92% of their games for bettors who made college football picks.
+21 on turnovers
Return 6 starters on offense and 9 on defense in 2008

AND, they have a head coach that can "out-eat" any other coach in college football.

The Kansas Jayhawks shocked the college football world by going undefeated before losing 28-36 against MIssouri to end the regular season. Lindy's has them in their top 15 and finishing at 9-3. The Sporting News has the Jayhawks sitting at #12 to start the season. College Football News has Kansas coming in as the #13 team in the nation. So what does all this mean to the sports bettor? Well, in my opinion, fade and fade away. Historically, teams that sneek up on the public AND the oddsmakers tend to come back to reality in terms of the pointspread the following season. Am I saying Kansas is going to lose all their games? Of course not. But in our world, overall record has no meaning in comparision to how a team does against the pointspread. If you took all the teams from the 2006 season who hit 75% or higher against the number, in 2007 the group average was just above 50%. There are always exceptions to the rule, but with the magazines and T.V. shows calling Kansas a Top 15 school and strong contender in the Big 12, do not expect the same line value as you were able to get last season.

Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but one game I look at is the September 12th game at South Florida. If Kansas can win there first two games in impressive fashion, it is more than likley that this will be their first loss. People will be calling Kansas a BCS contender despite the fact South Florida is going to very tough this year. Honestly, there even could be value in their opener as 38 point favorite against Florida International. Last season the Jayhawks were favored by 33.5 and won 55-3. Why is there value in a team getting 38 who was blasted by 52 the season before? Well, besides the fact Kansas is now getting the exposure from the powers that be and the line will relfect that, the Golden Panthers return 18 starters in 2008. So 18 starters are returning and Kansas is expected to be "not as good" this season but the line is 5 points higher? Sure, Kansas can blast them again, but (at least for me), value is more important than almost anything. I will toss out any handicapping, trends or expert opinion if there is value. To be successful in gambling, there is nothing more important than an edge that possibly has a positive expectation long term.

Could Kansas repeat and have a "sick" year against the number? Of course they could. That is why they call it gambling. This is why football is the "king of kings" when it comes to gambling. No other sport can you look at a full season schedule and pick out games to handicap in advance. This is the most exciting time of the year as you get ready for those opening season games.

God bless football.

Free MLB play from Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson! Twins yesterday!

Rocky Atkinson — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:10:00 GMT

FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY

Arizona @ San Diego 10:05 PM EST
Play On: 1* Arizona -140 (Haren/Baek) Listed

Arizona is 11-4 last 3 years and 7-0 this year when the total is 7 or less. Arizona is 6-0 this year on the road when the total is 7 or less. San Diego is 3-13 this year when playing on Wednesday. San Diego is 12-32 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Arizona bullpen has a 3.60 ERA on the road this year. San Diego is scoring only 3.8 runs per game overall, 3.6 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Dan Haren is 10-5 with a 2.56 ERA overall this year, 2.96 ERA on the road this year and 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA his last 3 starts. Baek is 0-5 with a 6.39 ERA at home this year. Haren has a 1.73 ERA overall vs San Diego since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has a HUGE 3* MLB DOUBLE DIME UNDERDOG play loaded right now for Wednesday night! Get it now! Football is almost here! 60% last 2 years combined in the NFL and I have won 11 of 12 years in College Football! Get your season package now!